South East Economic monitor: No GDP growth in five years
The South East, including Waterford city, pictured, has recorded no real GDP growth since 2018.
An in-depth overview of the economic status of the South East has been provided in this year's South East Economic Monitor.
Prepared by John Casey, Dr Ray Griffin and Dr Cormac O’Keefe, the report has thoroughly tracked the economic fortunes of the south east since 2016.
This year's report finds that there has been no significant growth in five years across the region.
The South East has recorded no real GDP growth since 2018, in contrast to more than 40% national growth in the same period. The region continues to lag in IDA-supported jobs, income, and infrastructure, raising concerns about long-term economic exclusion.
While the national economy has significantly outperformed expectations, recording GDP growth of 40.2% since 2019 and maintaining strong employment levels, the South East, like other disadvantaged regions, follows a notably different trajectory, the report outlined.
“Although the national recovery from the pandemic has been strong - reflected in buoyant tax receipts and resilient domestic demand, its benefits have not been evenly distributed.
"The South East continues to lag behind national averages across key metrics, including labour force participation, income tax receipts, disposable income, and public capital investment.”
The unemployment rate in the South East increased to 5.2% from 3.8% one year earlier, despite strong job creation as the participation rate in the South East increased significantly.
The unemployment rate in the South East remains the highest in the State.
The South East labour market continues to grow, with employment growing at almost twice that of the State and reaching record levels.
The South East returns approximately half of the income taxes that one would expect based on population share.
Regarding housing, completions have risen steadily for six years, reaching over 2,500 units in the South East in 2024. However, this is still 21% below projected demand - although this represents a better outcome than the national shortfall of 31%.
House prices in the South East have recovered strongly since the crash, with all counties following similar trends.
While still below the national average – skewed by Dublin – the median house price in the region has more than doubled from €125,000 in 2014 to €285,650 in 2024.
In terms of higher education in the region, the report says that brain-drain continues, despite the amalgamation of Carlow and Waterford Institutes of Technology.
In 2023/24, there were 15,070 full-time higher education students from the South East (down from 15,270 in 2022/23), representing 7.3% of the national total – below the region’s 8.9% population share.
Only 36% (5,430) studied within the region; 64% (9,640) left, creating economic leakage and higher costs for families during their studies. In contrast, 74.4% of students from the South West (Cork and Kerry) stayed local, with just 25.6% studying elsewhere.
The South East’s population has grown by 26% since 2006, mirroring national trends. Growth has continued since the 2022 Census, increasing pressure on health, education, and housing.
The population of the region is now at a 160-year high, although there is some way to go before the population exceeds that of the 1841 census where there were 687,000 in the region.
The Government’s Capital Tracker shows the region is receiving far below its proportional share of major public investment.
Strategic projects, including SETU infrastructure, the airport, and the North Quays, are progressing slowly or stalling. While individual initiatives such as the North Quays, SETU PPP, and Surgical Hub have political visibility, the aggregate data shows the South East is receiving just €1,800 per person, compared to a national average of nearly €8,000.
