Suspicious betting on Gerry Hutch in Dublin Central byelection uncovered
Most of the money placed on the Dublin Central byelection on the controversial Polymarket platform came from accounts engaged in highly suspicious betting behaviour, an investigation by The Irish Times has found.
Of more than $1 million (€860,250) placed on various candidates, 86 per cent came from accounts engaged in self-trading behaviour, where a bet is placed on a candidate before quickly being reversed with little or no profit or loss incurred.
Almost half of these unusual bets were placed on Gerry Hutch, the gangland figure known as 'The Monk', to lose in the byelection, which takes place on Friday.
Experts say these betting patterns can be indicative of illicit behaviour such as money laundering, market manipulation or attempts to make a betting market appear more active than it is, The Irish Times reports.
There is no suggestion Hutch or any other candidate is involved in the betting.
Polymarket, which did not respond to requests for comment, allows users to place bets anonymously using cryptocurrency.
Unlike on normal betting platforms, users trade yes or no “positions” with others rather than betting against the house. Polymarket also allows accounts to bet on a range of geopolitical events. Users with insider knowledge can make huge sums by betting on future events such as planned military operations.
Polymarket does not have a gambling licence in Ireland, but operates in a legal grey area and is likely to soon come under regulation by the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland.
The Irish Times analysis was carried out in co-operation with Anti-Corruption Data Collection (ACDC), a not-for-profit group of analysts who have conducted extensive research on Polymarket.
Bets were classified as suspicious if they met the following criteria: users bought $500 worth of “no” positions before selling those positions within six hours and making less than 1 per cent profit in the process. These criteria are based on the US Treasury’s list of red flags for potential illicit financial activity.
