The hurdle that’s haunted them

The numbers behind Ballygunner’s dominance don’t need much introduction.

3,829 days have passed since they were last slain in Waterford. An 81% win rate in Munster since the day in question - June 23rd 2015 -they’ve won 22 of their 27 battles over the course of a decade.

A model of consistency envied all over the provincial lands. Yet still, the second All-Ireland has eluded them even in times when it has been portrayed as inevitable.

What’s been their constant kryptonite? All-Ireland semi-finals.

Clarinbridge, St. Thomas’ and of course Ballyhale Shamrocks have proved insurmountable obstacles at this juncture before. Five times history has seen Ballygunner navigate this journey, and four times they’ve been sent home empty handed.

Despite being the ultimate winning machine in their own lands, a semi-final psychological hoodoo appears to exist - and the opposition is no easier this time around.

Remarkably, Sunday will be the first time the Gunners have ever been pitted up against Wexford opposition in a competitive fixture. They could be forgiven for thinking it would be old foes Ballyhale Shamrocks that’d stand opposite them at Semple Stadium - but the fact their opponents St. Martin’s were good enough to win that battle provides a serious cause for concern.

Jason Ryan’s knowledge of the Wexford camp might well come in as a trump card yet - as this is certainly one of the sternest tests Ballygunner have faced in their quest to climb the summit this season.

St. Martin’s have been sensational, dethroning All-Ireland kingpins Na Fianna - they then swatted aside Naas before producing a Ballygunner style victory in the Leinster decider. Ben Stafford had his Harry Ruddle moment.

I always say Ballygunner go into every single game they play as favourites given their remarkable consistency - but given that they’ve won 1 of 5 of these clashes across the course of the last 24 years, I wouldn’t be so quick to brandish that moniker.

On the flip side, St. Martin’s find themselves here for the very first time. Both sides have points to prove - one that they can do it outside of Munster again, the other that they belong at this level. A mouthwatering prospect at minimum.

St. Martin’s were extremely effective in shackling TJ Reid last time out - reducing him to 0-1 from play. Their own forwards were on fire by comparison - Jack O’Connor (0-6) and Rory O’Connor (0-3) notched 0-9 from play. They had the games of their lives on the day it mattered most.

Respectfully to the pair of them, that’s a standard outing for Dessie Hutchinson, Pauric Mahony and Patrick Fitzgerald when they’re given the requisite service. Eoin Cody and Niall Shortall still managed to score 1-2 each against the Wexford champions - they cannot by any means allow Hutchinson and company to do the same.

Hutchinson has 9-70 in 11 outings this season. Mahony has been like an orchestra conductor and Fitzgerald has come of age. Couple that with the immense contributions of Mikey Mahony, Peter Hogan, Kevin Mahony and many more and I wonder if St. Martin’s have faced a beast of this capability.

They no doubt deserved their Leinster win, but it’s up to them to prove it was no one off. This group played in Leinster in 2017 and 2019, and before this year - they’d been thumped by Cuala by 11 points and 14 points by Ballyhale. This is very much uncharted territory.

And that, perhaps, is where Ballygunner’s greatest challenge truly lies. Not in puck-outs, match-ups or whether the legs will be heavy come the final quarter, but in the space between the ears.

This group knows how to win. They have proven that relentlessly at county level and more often than not in Munster too. All-Ireland semi-finals have a way of asking questions that no other games seem to pose. Questions about belief, about scars, about whether past failures linger longer than anyone would care to admit.

The weight of history is an uncomfortable thing. Nobody inside the Ballygunner camp will openly acknowledge it, but it would be naive to suggest it doesn’t exist. When you’ve been here before and fallen short, the mind has a habit of drifting back at inopportune moments. One bad wide. One defensive lapse. One goal conceded against the run of play. Suddenly, the ghosts start whispering. Overcoming that internal battle is just as important as overcoming the opposition lined out in front of you.

That’s why leadership will be paramount. Not just from the marquee names, but from every line of the pitch. You’ll need the likes of Philip Mahony setting the tone with his physicality and composure, you’ll need Stephen O’Keeffe to be razor sharp with his deliveries. The replacements, or the finishers as they’re so often referred to now - whoever they may be, standing tall under pressure.

Leaders must be demanding standards when momentum threatens to swing. These are the moments that define teams, not just players. Ballygunner don’t lack leaders, but they need them to roar when silence would be easier.

There’s also an argument that Ballygunner, for all their dominance, have rarely been forced into adversity within games this season. They have blown teams away early, imposed themselves physically and technically, and often had contests wrapped up before the final whistle loomed large.

Semi-finals don’t afford that luxury. They are ugly, attritional affairs where rhythm is hard-earned and control is fleeting. Ballygunner must be comfortable being uncomfortable.

St. Martin’s will ensure that is the case. They are structured, disciplined and brimming with belief. Their journey has been fuelled by momentum, and momentum is a dangerous thing when paired with nothing to lose. Every puck will be contested, every run tracked, every Ballygunner score responded to with defiance.

This will not be a game that is handed to Ballygunner on reputation alone - and if they subconsciously expect that, they’ll be in trouble.

Yet, for all the talk of hoodoos and history, there comes a point where quality has to assert itself. Ballygunner possess more firepower, more experience, and more players accustomed to delivering on the biggest stages. Hutchinson, Mahony and Fitzgerald aren’t just forwards - they’re problem solvers. When a game threatens to drift, they have the individual brilliance to drag it back by the scruff of the neck. St. Martin’s have them too - but I trust the men in red and black will be buoyed by a sense of righting past wrongs.

This semi-final feels like a crossroads moment. Win, and the narrative shifts entirely. Suddenly, the talk of psychological barriers evaporates, replaced by a sense of inevitability once more. Lose, and the questions become louder, sharper, harder to deflect. Fair or not, this group will be judged on what happens next. Dominance without ultimate reward has a shelf life.

For Ballygunner, this is about more than reaching another All-Ireland final. It’s about proving to themselves that the past does not dictate the future. Those lessons have been learned. Those scars have to have healed. That when the moment comes, as it inevitably will - they have the clarity and conviction to seize it rather than fear it.

Semi-finals don’t care about win percentages or days unbeaten. They care about nerve. About composure. About who stands tallest when the margins are thinnest. Ballygunner have waited long enough for this opportunity to mean something different.

Sunday is their chance to finally break the cycle - or be defined by it once more.