Phoenix: The die is cast

The stand out party performance in this election is surely that of Fine Gael’s John Cummins. Despite trenchant criticism here and in local and social media, Mr Cummins deserves huge congratulations for the performance of a life-time, showing grit, determination and a relentless focus on taking a seat for Fine Gael. 

This was a Cummins vote though, rather than a Fine Gael vote. Remember the last government had not delivered on the main Waterford asks, 24/7 cardiology, new SETU engineering building and Waterford Airport. 

It would be hard to find an area controlled by Fine Gael ministers in the last government where Waterford really benefited. 

Even in FDI industry, the story is sparse. We can go to Kilkenny and see where the IDA directed a new Abbott plant to employ up to 1,000 workers, but can find no similar, major new FDI industry here. 

Mr Cummins, his father, friends and family, campaigned with their hands hanging, yet persuaded the local electorate that the best chance of delivery to this constituency of the asks listed above, lay with Fine  Gael in the coming administration. Mr Cummins himself referenced those key deliverables in his victory speech. 

Hopefully, local trust will be repaid sooner rather than later. 

Mr Cummins and his supporters have not been shy in laying out his ministerial ambitions so it remains to be seen just how his deep, personal loyalty to Fine Gael and the last Taoiseach will be repaid by Simon Harris. We await developments.

In the run up to the election it was obvious that dissatisfaction with government in Waterford would manifest itself in different ways here. 

There was no surprise that David Cullinane topped the poll, even though Sinn Féin’s portion of the first preference vote here (32.8%) declined since the 2020 election (38.3%). 

The work being done on the ground, in the community, by people like Cllr John Hearne has a huge local impact, even though many people were very unhappy with Mr Cullinane’s sometimes obvious unwillingness to mention Waterford issues in the Dáil. 

Even in the current Sinn Féin manifesto, the word Waterford is not mentioned in any of its 177 pages. A mandate of 20,000 votes carried responsibilities. 

Mr Cullinane is of course Sinn Féin spokesman on health and maybe his actions were constrained and determined by party HQ, but if Sinn Féin is again not in government, which seems likely, he must be more vocal on local issues.

The loss of Marc Ó Cathasaigh’s seat was not unexpected. Regardless of his apologists, “it was the airport what done it”! 

The Green Party leadership could hardly be said to repay loyalty. The elevation of an Offaly county councillor, Pippa Hackett, to the Seanad and subsequently to a super junior ministry at cabinet by Eamon Ryan, instead of Marc Ó Cathasaigh, smacked of cronyism and Leinster elitism. 

The Waterford constituency has always had many green sympathisers and a loyal Green Party following, presumably from closeness to the sea, with an MEP, a TD and several local councillors. All are now gone, including decent representatives like Grace O’Sullivan, Jody Power and Marc Ó Cathasaigh. If the Greens are to re-emerge, prosper and push their many decent policies, some leadership understanding of basic politics is surely required. Something about ends justifying means comes to mind.

What can one say about Mary Butler of Fianna Fáil except that she breezed through the election? Although 24/7 cardiology has not been delivered as per the well-known photo of herself and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin outside UHW (Fianna Fáil will deliver 24/7), the second cath lab has been built, staff at UHW has grown by almost 900 people and consultant numbers have grown to 165. 

The delivery of a hugely important UHW surgical hub, under construction in Maypark Lane, was a huge plus for her. 

Ms Butler enjoys very favourable national profile and has carefully managed support from traditional Fianna  Fáil voters in mid and west Waterford. She has an uncanny ability to evade blame despite heavy criticism in local and social media for lack of capital investment at UHW. 

She certainly has ministerial ambition and will surely figure at some level in the next administration, especially if Micheál Martin, as is likely, is Taoiseach. Ms Butler’s loyalty to the Cork man is legendary. Should she return to the Department of Health, it is self-evidently a case of much done, very much more to do!

Matt Shanahan was Waterford’s most determined advocate in the last Dáil. Never has the word Waterford been raised more passionately in Dublin. He relentlessly pursued equality of resources for Waterford projects with a phenomenal work rate. 

He ranks among our best TDs. We may repent his losing a Dáil seat at leisure, but that’s Realpolitik in German terms. 

Fighting three major party machines as an independent is deeply challenging. The advent of Mary Roche for the Soc Dems, an articulate, high profile, former mayor of the city, based in the same geographic area as Mr Shanahan, flashed warning lights for his supporters. So it came to be. 

Some suggest the shining of a political advert on a UHW wall was a late, massive and self-inflicted PR disaster for Mr Shanahan. Some saw it as a storm in a tea cup, others thought it entirely insensitive. 

We’ll never know, but events dear boy, events! 

Mary Roche polled extremely well, partly as a result of an extremely effective performance on RTÉ radio’s Drivetime. She may now run for the Seanad? 

Is the old adage of city votes staying in the city, as articulated by the late, Labour mayor, councillor Liam Curham, shattered, by the huge transfer from Roche to Sinn Féin’s Conor McGuinness? More likely, the eastern electorate voted Number 1 Mary Roche and Number 2 Mary Butler or John Cummins, causing a dearth of possible transfers to Shanahan, while the western county electorate voted Number 1 Mary Butler or John Cummins and Number 2 Conor McGuinness, who held his lead through all the counts. He played the “west Waterford TD” bit to great advantage. Hopefully he will effectively speak for and represent the constituency at large in the next Dáil. We are divided enough.

Is the result a local return from independents to a traditional party vote? The next 12 months will tell a tale.