OPINION: Homelessness headline correlation, yes, but it's not what you think

When I studied data analysis at college, a tutor told my class that there were certain words like theory, correlation and research that most people misuse.

For instance, a theory is an explanation that is underpinned by a lot of evidence and fact is not opinion but an absolute, and a lot less common than you would think.

I bring this up because of some social media comments on a story I wrote last week, which appeared on the front page of the Waterford News and Star under the headline, Homeless on the rise in the Deise.

Some posters on social media contended that there was a “correlation” between that headline and the main story about protests that Saturday on the Mall.

One poster, perhaps rhetorically, challenged, “Make it make sense.” Well, I’m going to try.

And yes, there is a correlation between the two headlines, but it’s not what you think.

CORRELATION DOES NOT EQUAL CAUSATION 

So firstly, a correlation is a relationship between two or more things.

Not to be confused with causation, which means one of those things is causing the other.

Causation is the nature of a relationship, not the relationship itself.

Assuming that makes sense, the correlation between the headlines in question is that they appeared together on the front page.

There is no causal link between the headlines or the issues they represent.

Because (and this brings us to secondly), correlation is something we can measure with data.

If there is no data, then it is opinion, speculation or guesswork.

But not correlation.

HOUSING CRISIS 

Homelessness is a consequence of many crises in Ireland and is not a one-size-fits-all problem.

People become homeless for a variety of reasons, such as a shortage of homes, addiction and mental health issues, lack of community support and many other factors.

On a wider scale, homelessness is caused by underfunding by the Government, industry issues and the simple fact that capitalism begets crisis.

And rising homelessness is not new.

If you read that story, you will see that while there was a statistically significant difference when we compared the first six months of 2025 to the same period in 2024 and 2016, but there wasn’t when compared to 2018.

This means that the figures went up in 2018, decreased after that and by 2025 they have increased again.

By statistical significance, I mean I can reasonably rule out chance or coincidence and say there is a reason for these changes.

That ruling out of chance leaves correlation.

Stick with me. This is where it gets interesting.

HERE IS WHAT THE DATA ACTUALLY SAYS

I track and analyse the homeless figures every month.

I use the Waterford figures from the Monthly Homelessness Report published by the Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage.

The report is compiled by counting the number of people in local authority emergency accommodation over two or three days per month.

If I were to speculate, and take one factor that could be causing the Emergency Accommodation numbers to rise, I would say it is the changing rent controls.

If you look at the graphic below, you will see the average number of adults in Emergency Accommodation per month between 2016 and 2024.

I have excluded 2025 because the year is not yet complete.

As you can see, the figures peaked in 2018.

The first Rent Pressure Zones were implemented in Waterford in July 2019, and the numbers after decreased.

In 2020, the first eviction ban came in, and the numbers continued to trend downward.

They increased when the ban lifted in May 2021, but after the second ban, they actually increased slightly.

However, when the second ban was lifted in March 2023, we can see a sharp increase.

That increase I would predict will continue throughout 2025 if not remedied.

Understand, I am not saying rent controls cause the increase; I don't know that.

This is my opinion based on the only figures in front of me.

There is a relationship between these two variables, but I I can’t tell you whether the relationship is causal.

On the other hand, I know of no evidence that there is a correlation between immigration and homelessness.

But if you have the number of people from outside Ireland coming to live in Waterford per month between 2016 and 2024, I will analyse that for you too.